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A Federated Forecasting Framework for Privacy-Preserving Smart-Meter Load Prediction Across Heterogeneous Distribution Feeders
Smart-meter load forecasting is essential for distribution-grid operation, flexibility scheduling, congestion management, and renewable integration. However, centralizing household-level smart-meter records can expose private behavioral patterns and reduce consumer trust. This article proposes a federated forecasting framework for accurate smart-meter load prediction across heterogeneous distribution feeders. The framework enables multiple feeders to collaboratively train forecasting models without transferring raw household consumption data. The proposed framework combines feeder-local temporal neural networks, federated aggregation, feeder-aware personalization, and optional differential privacy. It is validated through simulation on multi-feeder smart-meter datasets with different customer mixes, photovoltaic penetration levels, missing-data rates, and load variability. The framework achieves forecasting accuracy close to a centralized privacy-free benchmark while outperforming local-only and non-personalized federated baselines under strong feeder heterogeneity. Differential privacy introduces a controlled accuracy penalty that remains acceptable for day-ahead and intra-day feeder operation. The proposed federated forecasting framework provides a practical privacy-preserving solution for distribution system operators that need accurate load forecasts across diverse feeders. The results indicate that collaborative learning can preserve household privacy while improving feeder-level prediction accuracy.
Journal of Smart Grids, Energy Analytics and Optimization
Original Research | Open access | 20 March 2025 | Article: 16